Places that warmed by up to 1° Fahrenheit over the past 30 years are red, places that have cooled by up to 1° F are blue, and places where we don't have enough observations to calculate a trend are light gray. Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. Global Warming. To calculate a global average temperature, scientists begin with temperature measurements taken at locations around the globe. But in 2007 it was confirmed that the cell line that had long been the focus of this research was actually not a breast cancer line, but was instead a skin cancer line. The International Institute of Knowledge Management takes the pleasure to welcome you to the 2 nd International Conference on Global Warming and Climate Change 2019 (GlobeWarm ‘19) which will be held from 03 rd – 04 th October 2019 in Bangkok, Thailand. This means that some parts of Earth are quite cold while other parts are downright hot. Most notably, the UAH update lowers the warming seen in Australia between Jan 2018 and Feb 2019 by -0.11 deg C (from +0.39 C in the previous version to +0.28 C in the update). Live. Graphs are always released by the Friday before to give teachers time to plan ahead. The bars on the graph show the number of degrees by which the average global temperature for each year differs from the average global temperature during the … The global warming was due to a solar cycle not the miniscule 0.04% of CO2 in the atmosphere. This week’s graph shows how global temperature has changed since 1880. 99.9999% chance humans are causing global warming, and other science-based facts on climate change for Earth Day ... the global average temperature … Make a histogram of the annual variations of global surface temperature from the 1880-1899 average. In the global temperature graph, the anomalies are shown as the points below or above the 1880-1899 average, with their values shown on the y-axis. The far-left ThinkProgress reports that scientists have finally proven that the theory of man-made Global Warming is a total hoax. The level of climate-warming carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is forecast to rise by a near-record amount in 2019, according to the Met Office. The interactive maps show opinions on many questions related to climate with their statistics by state, county and other regional divisions. We continue to welcome your responses. Carbon dioxide emissions are a major climate change culprit that raises temperatures. To learn more about how these averages are calculated, go to the NASA climate website. If you make a claim, tell us what you noticed that supports your claim. The pe… The five warmest years in the 1880–2019 record have all occurred since 2015, while nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. The horizontal line at +0.0 degrees C is the average global temperature for the period 1880 - 1899. The modern short pulse of beneficial Global warming stopped 20 years ago and recent global temperatures are now stable or declining. Graphs Diagrams of Global Warming and Climate. The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. What are you curious about that comes from what you notice in the graph? What the graph shows is the departure from the average for the 30 years from 1981 to 2010. The average is a statistic that represents a central or typical value of a data set. As the “science” behind man-made global warming has been increasingly discredited, the story has changed. There are different measures of the center, including the mean, which is the arithmetic average (the sum of all values divided by the number of values) and the median (the middle value when all values are ordered). The year 1998 is the only year from the twentieth century still among the ten warmest years on record. “hockey stick graph” that global warming nuts have used to show global temperatures rose during the time period when man began using fossil fuels that were releasing CO2 or Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere. That extra heat is driving regional and seasonal temperature extremes, reducing snow cover and sea ice, intensifying heavy rainfall, and changing habitat ranges for plants and animals—expanding some and shrinking others. The negative values are the anomalies that are colder than the 1880-1899 average and positive values hotter than the 1880-1899 average. To speak of the "average" temperature, then, may seem like nonsense. Go to the A.S.A. An anomaly is the difference between the data’s absolute value and the average of the normal range. 3. Whoops. In the absence of policies, global warming is expected to reach 4.1°C – 4.8°C above pre-industrial by the end of the century. For regional details and more 2019 climate statistics, see the 2019 Annual Climate Report from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. In May 2016, to make visualizing climate change easier for the general public, University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins created an animated spiral graphic of global temperature change as a function of time, a representation said to have gone viral. At the global scale, the key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are: 1. (Jose Luis Stephens/EyeEm/Getty Images) At a Glance. Learn about the impact and consequences of climate change and global warming for the environment and our lives. Climate change could have a devastating effect on many societies by 2050 without swift and dramatic action to curb global warming, according … CO2 can also be emitted from direct human-induced impacts on forestry and other land use, such as through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. April 18, 2019. A time series graph displays a series of successive quantitative data points over a time period, which is usually divided into equal intervals. Across inaccessible areas that have few measurements, scientists use surrounding temperatures and other information to estimate the missing values. | Oct. 9. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913, Carbon Dioxide: Earth's Hottest Topic is Just Warming Up, History of Earth's temperature since 1880. Read our 2019-20 introductory post, which includes the archives of past releases by topic and graph type. NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from NCEI. What’s going on in this graph? Temperatures were warmer than average across most global land and ocean areas during most of the year. For example, though 67 percent of adult Americans think that global warming is happening, according to the August 2019 Yale Climate Opinion Maps, only 42 percent say that global warming will harm them. Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. After looking closely at the graph above (or at this full-size image), think about these three questions: What do you notice? 9 Apr 2019. Join us Wednesday, October 16 to notice and wonder about how the nutrition of fast foods has changed in the past 30 years. (2018). By Friday morning, we will reveal more information about the graph at the bottom of this post. This similarity in temperatures regardless of total emissions is a short-term phenomenon: it reflects the tremendous inertia of Earth's vast oceans. Global warming so fully occupies the thinking of some that there’s no room for information that will contradict their faith. Ms. Chauvet moderated online with Corey Andreasen, a math teacher at American School of The Hague in Leiden, The Netherlands. Notes on data released October 3, 2019 (v6.0) ... What is UAHv6.0 doing on the graph headed “Global average surface temperature change”? Likewise, land can also remove CO2 from the atmosphere through reforestation, improvement of soils, and other activities. The planet is warming, from North Pole to South Pole. This animation shows monthly temperatures for January–December 2019 compared to each month's 1981-2010 average. For more information, please visit NCEI's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page. Date Range: 1880 - 2019. Global warming, the phenomenon of rising average air temperatures near Earth’s surface over the past 100 to 200 years. The far-left ThinkProgress reports that scientists have finally proven that the theory of man-made Global Warming is a total hoax. Read more about how the global surface temperature record is built in our Climate Data Primer. The emissions that drive this warming are often called Baseline scenarios (‘Baselines’ in the above figure) and are taken from the IPCC AR5 Working Group III. The vast majority of vehicles on the road (and in the air and water) are powered via fossil fuels, such as gasoline. Davidharrisjr.com by Rich Welsh August 25, 2019 Michael Mann, a climatologist at Penn State University, is the creator of the famous (infamous?) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(8), S11–S12. In the global warming graph, the annual global surface temperatures for 1880 - 2018 are displayed as points connected by lines. The first graph tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites. “The first and most important conclusion is that the correct policy to address the non-problem of man-made global warming is to have the courage to do nothing,” Wrightstone says. This graph originally appeared elsewhere on NYTimes.com. The red points represent hotter years. (These variations in climate science are called anomalies. Over the last ten years global warming has been an item of debate although, the one thing that has been agreed upon is that the earth is warming. Changes in global average surface temperature from 1990-2019. The graph shows average annual global temperatures since 1880 (source data) compared to the long-term average (1901-2000). September 16, 2019:NOAA/NCEI no longer updates GHCN v3. Write about what you notice and wonder about warming based on your personal perspective. Each value is then used to calculate a global temperature average. July 9, 2013 at 12:32 p.m. EDT. The global warming pause. Describe where the 2018 anomaly is within the histogram. ... Sep 30, 2019. Describe the histogram — its center, shape, spread and outliers. National Climatic Data Center. Date: 12/11/19; Ross McKitrick ; Back around 2014 many people, me included, were commenting on the discrepancy between climate models and observations. Climate has changed when the planet received more or less sunlight due to subtle shifts in its orbit, as the atmosphere or surface changed, or when the Sun’s energy varied. Global Warming Swindle. If the current trend continues, how many degrees Celsius above the 1880-1899 average do you think the global temperature will be in 2050? Based on what you see in the visualizations, what do you think about the effect of increasing global surface temperatures to the world? 2019, NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Scientific Visualization Studio, how the nutrition of fast foods has changed in the past 30 years. How does the original article and the moderators’ comments help you see the graph differently? The blue points represent years … Heat waves, droughts, and intense rain events have increased in frequency during the last 50 years, and human-induced global warming more likely than not contributed to the trend. What trend do you notice in the graph? As they burn this fuel to power their engines, these vehicles release carbon and other pollutants, affecting both air and water quality. Global warming promoters fostered the popular public perception of the science of climate change as quite simple. This value tied with 1998 as the fifth highest global ocean temperature for January in the 139-year record. No land or ocean areas were record cold for the year, and the only substantial pocket of cooler-than-average land temperatures was in central North America. Of course, no one will admit it, but that is exactly what has happened. 07 Dec 1989, Page 14 – Santa Cruz Sentinel at Newspapers.com Because the real graph would have imperceptible change. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets … In any of these graphs, what do you notice? Explore this interactive graph: Click and drag to display different parts of the graph. Global warming is the temperature of Earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere going up over tens to thousands of years. Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. An agreeable definition is one that tells us that… Carbon dioxide (CO2): Fossil fuel use is the primary source of CO2. Over the last ten years global warming has been an item of debate although, the one thing that has been agreed upon is that the earth is warming. Agricultural Activity. The headlines ranged from the alarming (“Things are Heating Up: Rising Yearly Temperatures” by Grace of AOSE in New Jersey) to the hopeful (“Rise in Global Temperature: What Goes Up Must Come Back Down” by Caroline of Leiden, the Netherlands). The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land surface temperature (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. Temperature anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis. In the global warming graph, the annual global surface temperatures for 1880 - 2018 are displayed as points connected by lines. In the article, see how global temperature increases by 1.5°C or by 2.0°C above the 19th century average could affect the Arctic, extreme heat, water scarcity, plants and animals, coral reefs, sea level rise and crops. La Niña was present across the tropical Pacific Ocean during January 2018. Temperature anomalies and percentiles are shown on the gridded maps below. A number’s absolute value is the data value itself. CO2 can also be emitted from direct human-induced impacts on forestry and other land use, such as through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. According to the 2019 Global Climate Report from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2019 began with a weak-to-moderate El Niño event underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. What do you wonder? The blue points represent years with average temperatures colder than the 1880 - 1899 average temperature. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. The warmth occurred in the absence of El Niño, which is usually a factor in extreme global warmth. What’s Going On in This Graph? Throughout its long history, Earth has warmed and cooled time and again. After you have posted, read what others have said, then respond to someone else by posting a comment. Earth’s land and ocean surfaces continuously radiate thermal infrared energy (heat Despite the variability, there is a clear trend. The level of climate-warming carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is forecast to rise by a near-record amount in 2019, according to the Met Office. Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global warming: the added water from melting ice sheets and glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2019, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.71°F (0.95°C) above the twentieth-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C), making it the second-warmest year on record. Next, join the conversation by clicking on the comment button and posting in the box that opens on the right. There is a lot of variability in this graph. By S. Fred Singer. According to the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate in 2018, 2018 came in as the fourth warmest year on record in all four of the major global temperature datasets. Warming provokes a wide range of climate impacts, both local and global. This page contains all the graphs diagrams of global warming and climate change that are used on this web site. Temperatures vary from night to day and between seasonal extremes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Earth’s global surface temperature in 2019 was the second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880 and 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (0.98 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to an analysis by NASA. The only problem i've encountered is that if you raise ANY objections to Climate Change (tm), people think you're in … The 2-degree increase in global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era (1880-1900) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated heat. The agricultural practices that produce food for the people on earth is another … Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. When compared to 1951-1980 averages, the land average in 2019 has increased 1.32 ± 0.04 °C (2.38 ± 0.08 °F) and the ocean surface temperature, excluding sea ice regions, has increased 0.59 ± 0.06 °C (1.06 ± 0.11 °F). Averaged as a whole, the global ocean surface temperature for January 2018 was 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.5°F). Earth's temperature history as a roller coaster, State of the Climate: 2011 Stratospheric Temperature, Climate Change: Arctic sea ice summer minimum, Climate.gov tweet chat: Talk with heat experts on mapping urban heat islands, July 2020 climate outlook has no good news for the U.S. Southwest. February 25, 2019. (Jose Luis Stephens/EyeEm/Getty Images) At a Glance. Usually when average is used in the media, it is referring to the mean or arithmetic average. Try to incorporate the statistical terms defined in the Stat Nuggets in your response. At the global scale, the key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are: 1. Start with “I notice,” then “I wonder,” and end with a catchy headline. It is impossible to pin any single unusual weather event on global warming, but emerging evidence suggests that global warming is already influencing the weather. A NASA satellite study has verified the accuracy of global warming trends. Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual 2019, published online January 2020, retrieved on January 16, 2020 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913. Now it’s not about saving the environment but about redistributing wealth, says a leading member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Over the past two decades, the 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) number has emerged as a critical threshold for global warming. When a trend is strong, we can use the data to make predictions (or forecasts) about the future. In a report for the Fraser Institute I showed the following graph: What do students notice and wonder about this graph featuring global temperatures over time? But note that the GISS analysis currently uses the adjusted GHCN v4 data.June 14, 2019:Starting … The pe… The high heat capacity of water means that ocean temperature doesn't react instantly to the increased heat being trapped by greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide (CO2): Fossil fuel use is the primary source of CO2. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880 and over twice that rate (+0.18°C / +0.32°F) since 1981. From 1960 to 2019 CO2 is shown to have increased from about 320 parts per million to now about 400 parts per million. •. Write a catchy headline that captures the graph’s main idea. The zero line represents the long-term average temperature for the whole planet; blue and red bars show the difference above or below average for each year. The data also tell us 2019’s average has been cooler than 2005’s, the first year of the data set. The shaded area highlights this difference, making it clear to see that there has been a substantial increase in temperatures in the past century. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Because their goal is to track changes in temperature, measurements are converted from absolute temperature readings to temperature anomalies—the difference between the observed temperature and the long-term average temperature for each location and date. By 2030, however, the heating imbalance caused by greenhouse gases begins to overcome the oceans' thermal inertia, and projected temperature pathways begin to diverge, with unchecked carbon dioxide emissions likely leading to several additional degrees of warming by the end of the century. Thirty years ago, Tom Karl (longtime head of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center) said most global warming occurred before 1919, and that Earth cooled from 1921 to 1979. Read the New York Times article “The World Still Isn’t Meeting Its Climate Goals” to see graphs comparing current, pledged and projected emissions. (2016). 22.214.171.124 Projected risks and adaptation options for oceans under global warming of 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels 126.96.36.199 Framework organisms (tropical corals, mangroves and seagrass) 188.8.131.52 Ocean foodwebs (pteropods, bivalves, krill and fin fish) Here are some of the student headlines that really capture the meaning of this graph. Keep noticing and wondering. Temperature [in State of the Climate in 2018]. 4. In fact, transportation was a huge contributor to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2016.Greenhouse gases trap heat within the atmosphere, which causes global temperat… According to the NOAA 2019 Global Climate Summary, the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880; however, the average rate of increase since 1981 (0.18°C / 0.32°F) is more than twice as great. The non-warming of the climate has become a topic much discussed since about … Average temperatures today are about 1 °C (1.8 °F) higher than before the Industrial Revolution, which started around 1750, during the Little Ice Age, an abnormally cold period. What’s the hottest Earth has been “lately”? To gain a deeper understanding, read the article where today’s graph was found, “2018 Continues Warming Trend, As 4th Hottest Since 1880,” and view the time lapse visualization of the temperature for this period made by the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Scientific Visualization Studio. That is an increase of 80 parts per million over the past 60 years. On Wednesday, Oct. 9, our collaborator, the American Statistical Association, will facilitate this discussion from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Eastern time to help students’ understanding go deeper. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. 9 Apr 2019. The non-warming of the climate has become a topic much discussed since about 2005. Various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 22 months are: What do you wonder? The concept of an average temperature for the entire globe may seem odd. February 25, 2019. Warming Stripes - States. Of course, no one will admit it, but that is exactly what has happened. Climate Models vs Observations: 2019 Update. From 1900 to 1980 a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every 3 years. Add our 2019-20 “What’s Going On in This Graph?” 22 live-moderated discussion Wednesdays to your Google calendar (10/9, 10/16, 10/23, 10/30, 11/6, 11/13, 11/20, 12/4, 12/11, 1/8, 1/15, 1/22, 1/29, 2/8, 2/12, 2/26, 3/4, 3/11, 3/18, 3/25, 4/1, 4/8). 80 parts per million is … By S. Fred Singer. Students, we encourage you to post an additional comment after reading the reveal. Credit: Burke et al (2018) 2. The New York Times reported in their article “Why a Half a Degree of Global Warming is a Big Deal” that, according to a United Nations report, the Earth has warmed by 1°C since the 19th century. The global warming pause. We look forward to your responses on October 16 between 9 a.m. - 2 p.m. Eastern time during the live online moderation. Learn more about global climate change on the NASA website, where you can find additional graphs and other information on evidence, causes, effects, scientific consensus and vital signs. The current NASA graph looks nothing like the prior graphs, and has completely erased the post-1940 cooling. 2. Mish, thank you for sharing this. Anthony Watts offers seven charts that show the effects of the last decade of alleged global warming. Use the “Reply” button or the @ symbol to address that student directly. The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land). The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998, and 9 of the 10 have occurred since 2005. By Ezra Klein. A satellite against the backdrop of Earth. Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998. A 2015 literature review found almost 900 peer-reviewed studies published on breast cancer using a cell line derived from a breast cancer patient in Texas in 1976. But in some parts of the world it is less than this and some more. There were very direct headlines, such as “Global Warming on the Rise” by Team of Eden Prairie, Minnesota. Likewise, land can also remove CO2 from the atmosphere through reforestation, improvement of soils, and other activities. A NASA satellite study has verified the accuracy of global warming trends. In fact, la Niña was in place across the tropical Pacific from January–April, and it left an imprint on the region's temp… A satellite against the backdrop of Earth. Critical thinking is an essential element of statistics, the science of learning from data. Below in the Stat Nuggets, we define and explain mathematical terms that apply to this graph. You may want to think critically about these additional questions. Multiple independent research groups across the world perform their own analysis of the surface temperature data, and they all show a similar upward trend. K-12 website, which includes This is Statistics, resources, professional development, student competitions, curriculum, courses and careers. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Global energy consumption in 2018 increased at nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010, driven by a robust global economy and higher heating and cooling needs in some parts of the world. This process provides a consistent, reliable method for monitoring changes in Earth's surface temperature over time. By Friday morning, Oct. 11, we will provide the “Reveal” — the graph’s free online link, additional background and questions, shout outs highlighting student comments and headlines, and Stat Nuggets. The last data point is February 2019 with a result of -0.03 degrees C. So we have had 40 years of global warming and the temperature has remained flat. It shows how some variable changes over time. Thank you for participating in “What’s Going On in This Graph?”, which is intended to help you think more critically about graphs and the underlying data. The year 2019 counted among the top three warmest years on record. Record high sea surface temperatures were observed across parts of all oceans, including the North and South Atlantic Ocean, the western Indian Ocean, and areas of northern, central and southwestern Pacific Ocean. The final frame of animation shows where annual temperatures were warmer (red) or colder (blue) than average. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on NCEI data. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society's State of the Climate 2019. The questions are intended to build on one another, so try to answer them in order. (Students 13 and older are invited to comment online. 2 Minute Read. Warming Stripes - States. The map for “What’s Going On in This Graph?” are selected in partnership with Sharon Hessney. This long-term record of global temperature is a key indicator of warming in the climate system. The theme of the conference is ” Global Warming and Planning the Sustainable future “. Looking back to 1988, a pattern emerges: except for 2011, as each new year is added to the historical record, it becomes one of the top 10 warmest on record at that time, but it is ultimately replaced as the “top ten” window shifts forward in time. If you look at IPCC 1995 temperature graph you will see that in 1936 was the peak for temperature. In the time series graph, the global temperature average is shown as a horizontal line, designated as 0°C. The anomaly values are the difference between each year’s absolute value of global surface temperature and the 1880-1899 average global surface temperature. This graph (source data) shows differences from the long-term average global ocean heat content (1955-2006) in the top 700 meters of the ocean. Only 2015, 2016, and 2017 were warmer. Consequently, updates to GISTEMP v3 concluded with the July 2019 update.The Common Sense Climate Index for individual stations is now also based on GISTEMP v4.July 15, 2019:The difference between raw data and the unadjusted data has been clarified on our FAQ site. By 2020, models project that global surface temperature will be more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than the 1986-2005 average, regardless of which carbon dioxide emissions pathway the world follows. Warming provokes a wide range of climate impacts, both local and global. To squeeze or stretch the graph in either direction, hold your Shift key down, then click and drag. Annual global temperature anomalies for land and ocean combined, expressed as departures from the 1901-2000 average. However, the concept of a global average temperature is convenient for detecting and tracking changes in Earth's energy budget—how much sunlight Earth absorbs minus how much it radiates to space as heat—over time. David Middleton says: October 4, 2019 at 10:11 am ... changed the world and is one of the most influential resources on global warming. Temperature records from NOAA, NASA, and the University of East Anglia all show an increase from the start of the 20th-century through 2019. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.The first graph shows atmospheric CO 2 levels measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, in recent years, with average seasonal cycle removed. Since 1880 ) about the impact and consequences of climate impacts, both local and global ( blue ) average. 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